2025 Heisman Trophy: Breaking Down the Four Finalists on Rising To The Occasion Podcast

The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony is finally here, and on this week's special episode of Rising To The Occasion, hosts Josh Mahler and Jeremy Russell dive deep into what could be the most competitive Heisman race in recent memory. With the 91st Heisman ceremony set to air live on ABC and ESPN Saturday, December 13 at 7 p.m. ET from Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City, we're breaking down all four finalists and what their paths to glory look like.

The Four Finalists: A Historic Year for College Football

This year's Heisman finalists represent something truly special in college football: the potential for program-changing moments. For the seventh consecutive year, exactly four finalists have been selected, and two of them could become the first-ever Heisman winners for their respective schools.

Fernando Mendoza - Indiana: The Overwhelming Favorite

Stats: 2,980 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 71.5% completion percentage

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the betting-market favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy with odds as low as -2000 at some sportsbooks. His season has been nothing short of exceptional, and his performance in the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State sealed his status as the frontrunner.

What makes Mendoza's case compelling isn't just his efficiency—it's the historic nature of what he's accomplished. Leading Indiana to a 13-0 undefeated regular season, Mendoza has delivered the kind of consistency that Heisman voters reward. His 33 touchdown passes lead all of FBS, and his TD-to-INT ratio of 33-to-6 is elite-level decision making.

If Mendoza wins Saturday night, he becomes the first Heisman Trophy winner in Indiana history. That's not just an accolade—that's a program-altering moment. Indiana hasn't been relevant on the national stage in decades, and Mendoza has been the catalyst for their resurgence.

Julian Sayin - Ohio State: The Record-Breaker

Stats: 3,323 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 78.4% completion percentage (FBS-best)

Julian Sayin made history this season by setting a new college football record for completion percentage. His 78.4% mark surpassed previous records held by Bo Nix (Oregon) and Mac Jones (Alabama), putting him in exclusive company among the most accurate quarterbacks in college football history.

Playing for a national championship-caliber Ohio State team, Sayin's consistency has been the defining characteristic of his 2025 season. He's thrown over 80% completions in five games, over 75% in seven games, and over 70% in essentially every outing. For an Ohio State program with a storied history of elite quarterbacks, Sayin has entered that conversation.

The counterargument to Sayin's candidacy is the "system quarterback" debate—does he benefit from playing in one of college football's most talented programs? What's clear is that breaking an all-time completion percentage record is something that transcends system arguments. That's individual brilliance.

Diego Pavia - Vanderbilt: The Cinderella Story

Stats: 3,195 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 71.2% completion percentage; 826 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns

If there's a "feel-good" story in this Heisman race, it's Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been one of college football's most downtrodden programs for years, and Pavia has single-handedly transformed the program's trajectory.

With 4,018 total yards of offense (passing plus rushing combined), Pavia represents the modern dual-threat quarterback archetype. He's not just slinging it around; he's creating explosive plays on the ground with 826 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. That versatility makes him a nightmare to defend.

If Pavia wins, Vanderbilt gets its first-ever Heisman Trophy winner, which would be seismic for a program that's never had a moment like this. The narrative is compelling, though some voters may dock him for facing a less rigorous schedule compared to his Big Ten counterparts.

Jeremiyah Love - Notre Dame: The Running Back in a Quarterback's Game

Stats: 1,372 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 280 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns (21 total TDs)

Jeremiyah Love represents something increasingly rare in modern Heisman voting: a traditional running back threat. In an era dominated by quarterback dominance, Love has put up a season that rivals some of the greatest running back campaigns in Notre Dame history.

His 1,372 rushing yards on just 199 carries reflects his elite efficiency—averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Most impressively, Love tied the Notre Dame single-season touchdown record with 21 total scores, surpassing the legendary Jerome Bettis' previous standard.

Love's challenge is that Notre Dame missed the College Football Playoff despite his dominant season, which typically hurts a player's Heisman case. However, his individual brilliance is undeniable, and a traditional running back winning the Heisman would be a significant statement about valuing individual excellence over team success.

The Heisman Voting Process and What Voters Are Looking For

The Heisman Trophy is voted on by 930 voters: 870 media members, 59 former Heisman winners, and one fan vote. This year's voting concluded after the conference championship games, which means Mendoza's performance in the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State likely had a significant impact on voter sentiment.

Historically, Heisman voters have increasingly favored quarterbacks, which puts Mendoza, Sayin, and Pavia at an inherent advantage over Love. However, the narrative elements—first-time winners for programs desperate for a moment like this—could resonate with voters looking for a story beyond pure statistics.

Expert Predictions: What the Odds Tell Us

According to major sportsbooks heading into Saturday:

• Fernando Mendoza: -2000 to -1000 odds (approximately 92% implied probability to win)

• Diego Pavia: +900 to +1500 odds

• Julian Sayin: +4000 or longer

• Jeremiyah Love: +40000 or longer

The betting markets have spoken emphatically: Mendoza is the heavy favorite. The consensus among oddsmakers is that Indiana's undefeated season, combined with his big-game performance in the Big Ten Championship, has essentially secured his candidacy.

However, as any sports fan knows, betting odds aren't always destiny. If Sayin and Mendoza had both struggled in their potential second game, or if voters decided to embrace the dual-threat revolution Pavia represents, the race could have shifted dramatically.

The Bigger Picture: What This Heisman Class Tells Us About 2025

Looking at these four finalists together, several themes emerge:

Quarterback Dominance Continues: Three of the four finalists are quarterbacks, continuing the trend of QB-friendly Heisman voting. Love's presence in the field represents the last realistic challenge to quarterback supremacy in this award.

Historic Programs and New Histories: Indiana and Vanderbilt both have the opportunity to add their first Heisman winner to their legacies. This year's ceremony could fundamentally alter the historical record of two programs searching for that kind of moment.

Efficiency vs. Volume: Sayin's completion percentage record competes with Mendoza's touchdown efficiency (33-6) and Pavia's all-purpose production (4,018 yards). What matters more—breaking records for accuracy, touchdown production, or total output?

The Undefeated Factor: Mendoza's 13-0 regular season carries significant weight in an expanded playoff era. Perfect records are harder to achieve than ever before, and voters may value that rarity.

The NFL Draft Implications

For all four finalists, the Heisman Trophy on their resume changes everything. The award typically provides a significant boost to draft stock, enhanced endorsement opportunities, and media visibility that translates to long-term earning potential.

For Mendoza and Pavia especially, a Heisman win would represent generational opportunities both on and off the field, as they'd be their program's first-ever winners—a distinction that carries unique cultural weight in their respective regions.

Tune In This Saturday

The 91st Heisman Trophy ceremony airs live Saturday, December 13, 2025, at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN. For in-depth analysis, expert predictions, and deep dives into each finalist's journey, tune in to Rising To The Occasion's special Heisman coverage.

Whether Mendoza's Indiana narrative wins the day, Sayin's historic accuracy carries the award, Pavia's Vanderbilt story captures voters' hearts, or Love's elite running back season proves compelling enough—Saturday night will give us answers to one of the most interesting Heisman races in recent memory.